Population growth and urban sprawl have made physical change more complex, driven by land-use policies.The District 22 of Tehran, as the capital's new development hub, has experienced distinctive spatial dynamics. This study aims to analyze the morphological transformation of District 22 within the framework of urban physical expansion management strategies. The research is applied in purpose and quantitative in methodology. Spatial data on built-up areas for 2006, 2016, and 2024 were extracted through visual interpretation of satellite imagery using Google Earth Pro. The Holdren model and landscape metrics were then employed to distinguish the contribution of different factors and to analyze the landscape structure. The Holdren model results for the first period (2006–2016) indicated that population growth, with a contribution of approximately 128%, was the primary driver of physical development, while per capita land consumption decreased by 28%. However, landscape metrics revealed increasing shape complexity and patch fragmentation, indicating that this expansion lacked a structural guidance and a coherent development strategy. During the second period (2016–2024), although the Holdren model showed a positive 15% contribution from per capita land consumption, declining trends in the Shape-MN and ENN-MN metrics demonstrated that new land consumption primarily occurred through infill development and the utilization of vacant internal spaces in a more compact and orderly pattern. Over the entire 18-year period (2006–2024), population growth, accounting for 113% of the total contribution, remained the principal driver of the district's physical expansion. District 22's macro-structure has inadequate sprawl and progressed toward smart growth principles. . .