The central part of the Tehran metropolis, despite its strategic location, rich historical legacy, and unparalleled role as the capital's physical and functional identity, faces deep and multifaceted challenges - including physical deterioration, population instability, decline in residential functions, and socio-economic stagnation. In such circumstances, the analytical capacities of the political economy of space and urban social ecology approaches can serve as effective drivers of regeneration and reorganization. This research aims to identify and prioritize the driving forces affecting future spatial transformations of central Tehran, with particular emphasis on the theoretical and analytical contributions of these two approaches. This applied-developmental and descriptive-analytical study employed an exploratory, scenario-based approach to identify driving factors and forces. Variables were identified through library research and environmental scanning, while data collected using the Delphi technique from 40 selected specialists and experts. Data were analyzed utilizing structural analysis in MICMAC and scenario planning in Scenario Wizard. The results indicate that the driving forces affecting central Tehran are currently unstable. Key influential factors include the centralization and concentration of facilities, social segregation and economic weakness, the north-south social gradient, changing needs, migration and marginalization, land speculation, centrifugal forces and the exodus of the middle class, the historical bazaar and the density of specific land uses, and increasing insecurity along with traffic and construction restrictions. These have collectively exerted the most significant impact on the transformations of central Tehran. The future spatial transformations of this metropolis are intrinsically linked to the effective, mutually interacting dynamics of these driving forces.