Sustainable city

Sustainable city

Modeling and analyzing the consequences of urban prosperity scenarios, a case study of Karaj city

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 PhD student, Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran
2 Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran
3 department of geography of shahid beheshti university
4 PhD in Geography and Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
5 Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/jsc.2023.429787.1751
Abstract
Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown.

Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown.

Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown.

Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown.
Keywords


Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 11 May 2024