Identification and analysis of key drivers affecting informal settlement in Bojnord city

 A B S T R A C T
Today, informal settlement has become one of the most important concerns of city managers in developed and developing countries. The phenomenon of informal settlement is influenced by various factors, economic, socio-cultural, managerial and natural, and it also affects the economy, culture and environment of cities. The current research aims to identify and analyze the key factors affecting informal settlement in Bojnord using the structural analysis approach. The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and terms of its nature and method, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science. To collect the required data and information, a questionnaire and the Delphi technique and documentary and library studies were used, which were done in two stages: determining key indicators through the Delphi method and identifying key drivers using MicMac software based on the cross-effects analysis method. The results of the research show that all 26 main factors affect the informal settlement of Bojnoord, but among them, a total of 7 factors are population growth, continued migration to cities, access to important centres, the existence of neighbourhood advantages for low-income immigrants, such as the cheapness of land, The main road, unemployment, and the weakness of urban management are considered as the key drivers affecting the informal settlement of Bojnoord
Extended abstract
Introduction
Bojnord City, as the political-administrative and service centre of North Khorasan province, has faced significant population growth in recent decades, so it has gradually encountered problems in responding to the needs and demands of citizens, especially regarding the provision of housing and the services they need. It is expected that these issues and problems will appear more in the coming years if coherent and integrated urban planning is not applied. However, we are currently witnessing the formation of informal settlements on the outskirts of this city, which are growing rapidly. One of the most important practical measures to prevent the increasing growth of this type of settlement in Bojnord City is to identify and prioritize the most important factors that are effective in the formation of informal settlements. Because these factors can have different intensities and diversity according to the conditions of each urban space. Therefore, the basic question that the researchers seek to answer in the present study is: What are the key factors affecting the formation and growth of informal settlements in Bojnord City?
 
Methodology
The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and terms of its nature and method, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science. To collect the required data and information, a questionnaire and Delphi technique and documentary and library studies have been used. To apply the Delphi technique and cross-effects analysis, questionnaires have been prepared in two stages. The first stage includes 30 open-ended questionnaires in which the most important factors influencing the informal settlement of Bojnord in central subjects, taking into account various and comprehensive fields, including economic and social - Cultural and natural factors have been provided to the experts, which led to the general extraction of the factors affecting the informal settlement of Bojnord. The second stage includes 20 questionnaires to determine the key drivers influencing the informal settlement of Bojnord through weighting, which is completed by the experts and finally for analysis. The collected data was used by MicMac software.
 
Results and discussion
The results of the library documentary and field studies of informal settlements in Bojnourd show that, in general, the factors of "population growth, weak urban management, the increasing trend of living costs, the difference in land prices in the centre and the outskirts of the city, approaches to empowering and building the capacity of marginal communities, the continuation of migration to cities The ineffectiveness of government policies about land and urban housing, the lack of strict monitoring by the municipality on unauthorized constructions, the existence of neighbourhood advantages for low-income immigrants, such as the cheapness of land, proximity to important cities, the existence of the main road, the change in the economic structure of the city in the national and regional economy. regional economic inability to attract and maintain the native population due to environmental poverty, economic disorder and social instability, the existence of national and regional political crises and currents (imposed war, Islamic revolution), the lack of urban empowerment management and especially the lack of integrated organizational coordination, The inability to implement approved urban lines and plans, especially in the field of urban development, the impossibility and ability to definitively determine and delimit the boundary line and the discreteness of the physical fabric of the city, the existence of an informal and marginal economy, natural factors such as drought, floods and earthquakes in rural areas, the level of income and low education, activity of brokers and property owners, low job skills and expertise, physical development of the city, high housing rent in residential areas, unemployment, access to important centers, informal markets, desire for urban life" affect the informal settlement of Bojnord, but the effects These factors are not equal, and the aspectsof "population growth, continued migration to cities, access to important centers, the existence of neighborhood advantages for low-income immigrants such as cheap land, the existence of the main road, unemployment, and the weakness of urban management" are the key drivers affecting settlement. They are informally mentioned.
 
Conclusion
The informal settlement is affected by various economic, social and managerial factors and mutually affects all social, economic and environmental dimensions of urban environments. The increase in the urbanization process and the increase in the urban population of Bajnoord, especially after the Islamic revolution, has caused an increase in the number of informal settlements in this city. The main problems of the residents of these informal contexts are in the physical, socio-cultural and economic sectors and include (weakness in infrastructure, water supply, health facilities, education, welfare and leisure facilities, employment, etc.).
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.