Document Type : Research Paper
Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad university, Tabriz, Iran
Department of Green Space Engineering, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran
A B S T R A C T
In recent years, the excessive spatial expansion of cities, along with the unplanned development plans, especially in big cities like Tabriz, has caused the creation of new urban textures and as a result, relocated residents and uses to new areas. As a result, the historical and old contexts of these cities have changed their function and have tended to the worn-out urban regions and the loss of urban life, stagnation and exhaustion. For this purpose, first, by studying the available documents, all the factors involved in the smart development and the integration of the worn-out urban fabric were studied, and by using the Delphi method, 53 variables were extracted in the mentioned basin. For data analysis, the interaction/structural effects analysis method was used by FL Micmac software. Also, Scenario Wizard software was used to develop scenarios. The results of the research show the instability of the system in the metropolis of Tabriz, based on which, five categories of influential, two-faceted, influential, independent and identifiable risk factors are identified, after identifying 14 key factors through risk and influencing variables, as a result, 8 final key components were selected. And these factors were entered into the Scenario Wizard software, and based on the opinions of experts, re-weighting and 6 very strong scenarios were selected from 260 possible scenarios. Based on the results obtained, expanding local access by strengthening physical and digital networks in the region, creating a mechanism to use the enormous potentials of social strata in the context, interdepartmental coordination between responsible institutions in line with sustainable development, comprehensive and principled planning to follow user principles Lands and per capita compliance, etc., were selected as the most optimal and desirable possible scenarios.
Today, cities operate not as a hierarchy but as a network. Meanwhile, technological advances and other factors have accelerated the population changes, increasing the population of cities and upsetting social and environmental balances. The smart city refers to smart solutions that allow modern cities to improve their production quantitatively and qualitatively. One of the essential development plans of worn-out textures is the idea of infill development and is considered as one of the categories of smart urban growth, which, if used correctly, will develop old and worn-out areas of cities. The idea of infill development is a subset of smart growth and sustainable urban development and has been proposed as a solution to improve the functional-spatial context of urban textures and mainly in traditional and historical textures, to fill the gaps in society and this development plays a vital role in harnessing existing urban potential. Also, endogenous development around the city is used to reduce the pressure of scattered development to lands. The present study aims to identify the most critical determinants and influential factors in the expansion of Tabriz Region 8.
The type of research is applied and is descriptive-analytical and survey in nature. Researchers first studied the indicators of smart urban development, in which the smart city includes six dimensions (smart people, smart life, smart environment, smart mobility, smart economy, smart governance) in general. Based on experts' opinions, 34 smart city sub-indicators were selected, which were used in the analysis. Also, 19 sub-indicators (based on authors 'studies and indexing with experts' opinions) were identified concerning infill development. After determining the key factors, different possible situations were considered for each key factor. And in the form of another questionnaire and based on the logic of the wizard scenario, it was weighted by experts (the weighting of this questionnaire is measured by pairwise
comparison and the relationship between variables in the range of numbers from 3 to -3). Professors also did the validity of this questionnaire in an interview, and through the Ensemble feature in the script wizard software, the questionnaires were entered in the wizard software.
Results and discussion
In this study, researchers prepared a questionnaire to determine the weights of criteria, and 50 relevant experts in the university and the municipality of Tabriz were surveyed. Fifty-three criteria were identified in the table related to the two main factors of smart development and infill development. Then, by placing these factors in a matrix of 53 by 53, these factors' effect on each other was determined by weighting the factors (from zero to 3).
Influential variables (because they are the most significant factors) and risk variables (due to their high capacity to become key factors of the system) were used, which are 14 factors. These factors include local access, access to public transportation, entrepreneurship, social cohesion, political views and strategies, urban per capita, participation in public life, productivity, creativity, cultural facilities, flexibility, sustainable and safe transportation, sustainable resource management, and population density. After consulting with experts, some of these factors were removed from the scripting process due to the close semantic relationship and others due to the semantic load disproportionate to infill development, and finally, eight factors remained.
Based on the results obtained from the Wizard scenario analysis, eight key components were selected for scenario development for the infill development in Tabriz Region 8, emphasizing the smart city. And for each of them, three possible scenarios were considered, for which a total of 24 possible scenarios were predicted. Possible situations include a range of desirable, undesirable, and critical conditions. Accordingly, eight variables (key variables identified by experts) were used.
This study aimed to develop compatible scenarios for the regional development of Tabriz. Based on this, ten general indicators (economic, security, settlements, relations, scientific development, production, natural, social, facilities, and regional conditions) were selected in the form of 53 sub-indicators in Tabriz Region 8. And 30 experts in the field of urban planning were considered research specialists, and a questionnaire in Excel was designed and sent to them. The final eight factors were considered based on the opinions of experts to develop scenarios, including local access, social cohesion and participation, political views and strategies, urban per capita, productivity, cultural facilities, sustainable resource management, population density. Finally, the most vital available scenarios, including six ones, were identified by appropriate experts to predict the system's future. Based on this, a desirable scenario, a critical scenario, and four combined neutral and critical scenarios were selected to develop Tabriz Region 8. Also, according to the System-Grid test, urban per capita (D) has the highest total factor (impact), and sustainable resource management variable (G) has the highest passive factor (impact). Also, the option of social cohesion and participation (B) obtained the lowest total sum, and the density component (H) had the lowest passive sum, according to experts. According to the obtained result, the first scenario is the best scenario imagined for region 8 in the direction of smart development. According to the obtained result, the first scenario is the best scenario imagined for region 8 in
the direction of smart development. Accordingly, the expansion of local access based on the strengthening of physical and digital networks in the region, the establishment of a mechanism to use the enormous potential of existing social groups in the texture, inter-sectoral coordination between responsible agencies for sustainable development, comprehensive and principled planning to follow the principles of land use and per capita, usage the great potential of the smart city for successful planning of the development of Tabriz, proper planning and attention to the historical and cultural texture of Tabriz Region 8, a compilation of a comprehensive plan for sustainable urban development to optimize the use of resources and in terms of land-use standards in the infill development of the region due to population density, were considered as the most optimal and desirable cases.
There is no funding support.
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.