Explaining Urban Governance Issues in Future Metropolitan Scenarios of Tehran Based on Qualitative Scenario Conversion Approach

Document Type : Article extracted From phd dissertation


1 Ph.D. in Geography and Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

3 Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran

4 Associate Professor of Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran



The functional, structural and inherent complexities of today's cities and the massive uncertainties caused by these complexities, along with the rapid growth of cities in all respects, make it very difficult to address their long-term future. In this context, scenario planning has become prevalent in urban management. However, the application of scenarios in urban planning and management is a key concern in responding to this concern about the use of synergistic scenario methods and the conversion of scenario stories into models Quantitative and measurable evaluations have been considered. In this research, the city-governor-city qualitative scenarios of Tehran metropolis have been modeled using fuzzy cognitive map method and the impact of each scenario on the key issues of urban governance has been quantitatively evaluated. The findings of this research show that based on the three critical uncertainties: 1- Participation of semen and civil institutions in urban management; 2- Impact of globalization process on Tehran metropolis; 3. The amount of changes and reforms in the country's governance system; eight scenarios It will probably take shape, in which five scenarios will fit into the future of the Tehran metropolis. The impact of each of these is different on the seven key issues of urban governance. Based on the modeling, other than the first one, which is located in the ideal state of Tehran, in all of the remaining scenarios, governance issues will intensify.


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