Document Type : Article extracted From phd dissertation
Authors
Department of Human Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmy University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/jsc.2026.489269.1818
Abstract
A B S T R A C T
The central part of the Tehran metropolis, despite its strategic location, rich historical legacy, and unparalleled role as the capital's physical and functional identity, faces deep and multifaceted challenges - including physical deterioration, population instability, decline in residential functions, and socio-economic stagnation. In such circumstances, the analytical capacities of the political economy of space and urban social ecology approaches can serve as effective drivers of regeneration and reorganization. This research aims to identify and prioritize the driving forces affecting future spatial transformations of central Tehran, with particular emphasis on the theoretical and analytical contributions of these two approaches. This applied-developmental and descriptive-analytical study employed an exploratory, scenario-based approach to identify driving factors and forces. Variables were identified through library research and environmental scanning, while data collected using the Delphi technique from 40 selected specialists and experts. Data were analyzed utilizing structural analysis in MICMAC and scenario planning in Scenario Wizard. The results indicate that the driving forces affecting central Tehran are currently unstable. Key influential factors include the centralization and concentration of facilities, social segregation and economic weakness, the north-south social gradient, changing needs, migration and marginalization, land speculation, centrifugal forces and the exodus of the middle class, the historical bazaar and the density of specific land uses, and increasing insecurity along with traffic and construction restrictions. These have collectively exerted the most significant impact on the transformations of central Tehran. The future spatial transformations of this metropolis are intrinsically linked to the effective, mutually interacting dynamics of these driving force.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The development of urban centers before industrialization was mainly influenced by cultural criteria. However, with the advent of the industrial age in the early 20th century, new criteria emerged, leading to fundamental changes in the urban context. Population growth and demand for modern elements pushed urban space toward disorganization and imbalance. These transformations led to the transfer of some functions from the central part to surrounding areas and the emergence of social, economic, and spatial issues. In the metropolis of Tehran, rapid population growth and excessive physical development created problems such as the central part’s lack of conformity with new urbanization patterns, as well as traffic congestion and pollution. What is important is to recognize and explain the transforming factors and mechanisms and to discover how these forces will function in the future and bring about change in the central part of the Tehran metropolis. Therefore, identifying the factors and driving forces in the developments of the central part can address the aforementioned issues, prevent the continuation of disturbances, and prepare the central part to adapt to impending needs. As the historical and functional heart of the capital, central Tehran has experienced considerable transformations over time. These transformations have been shaped by a complex interplay of social, economic, political, and spatial forces. The decline of residential functions, the outmigration of the middle class, the rise of informal settlements, and the increasing concentration of administrative and commercial activities are among the most visible manifestations. Understanding the underlying drivers is essential for any effective urban planning and policy-making aimed at revitalizing the central area. The main goal is to identify the factors and the mode of action of the driving and key forces affecting the spatial changes and transformations of central Tehran through two basic approaches: the political economy of space and urban ecology. This will pave the way to answer this fundamental question: What factors and forces affect the spatial development of Tehran’s central part? The political economy of space approach emphasizes the role of capital accumulation, land rent, and state intervention in shaping urban space, while the urban ecology approach focuses on the processes of competition, invasion, and succession among social groups. By combining these two theoretical lenses, the research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the driving forces behind the transformations of central Tehran.
Methodology
The research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and method. It adopted an exploratory and scenario-based approach to identify driving factors and forces. Variables were identified using library research and environmental scanning techniques, while information and data were collected utilizing the Delphi technique from a sample of 40 selected specialists and experts. The Delphi technique, which involves multiple rounds of anonymous questionnaires with controlled feedback, was chosen for its ability to generate consensus among experts on complex and uncertain issues. The experts were selected based on their expertise in urban planning, geography, sociology, economics, and related fields, as well as their familiarity with the specific context of Tehran. For data analysis, structural analysis was employed in MICMAC software, and Scenario Wizard software used for scenario planning. Structural analysis is a method for identifying the key variables that influence a system by examining the direct and indirect relationships among them. MICMAC allows researchers to analyze the influence and dependence of variables and to identify the driving forces that shape the evolution of a system. Scenario Wizard facilitates the construction and evaluation of alternative future scenarios based on different combinations of key variables. Together, these tools enabled the research to identify the most significant driving forces and to explore their potential implications for the future of central Tehran. The reliability of the questionnaire was assessed via Cronbach's alpha, which yielded a value of 0.809, indicating acceptable reliability. Content validity was confirmed through expert review, with a Content Validity Ratio (CVR) of 0.7, exceeding the minimum acceptable threshold of 0.42.
Results and Discussion
Based on theoretical foundations, research background, and expert opinions, 75 key factors affecting the changes and developments of the central part of the Tehran metropolis were identified at three levels—local, regional, and national-international. The cross-matrix method was used to evaluate the effectiveness and influence of variables. This matrix demonstrates that indicators of political-management, economic, and physical groups are more influential than influenced, while socio-cultural groups are identified as influential variables. The analysis of the variable states in the scatter plot indicates system instability. In the analysis of the scatterplot of variables related to changes and developments in central Tehran, three categories of variables can be identified within the system:
Decisive or influencing driving forces: The concentration of opportunities and facilities in Tehran and its centrality; the social isolation and economic weakness of society; migration and the formation of suburbs and marginalization; political economy, commercialism, and the land market; and the escape from the center and departure of the middle class. These driving forces represent the most powerful factors shaping the transformations. They are characterized by their high influence on other variables and their relatively low dependence, meaning that they act as primary drivers of change. The concentration of opportunities and facilities in Tehran has created a powerful magnet effect, drawing investment, services, and population toward the capital while simultaneously marginalizing other regions. This centralization has reinforced the primacy of Tehran within the national urban system, but it has also generated significant spatial inequalities and pressures on the central part. Social segregation, manifested in the north-south divide, has further exacerbated these inequalities, with the northern parts enjoying better infrastructure and services, while the southern parts, including the central area, have experienced neglect and decline. Migration and suburbs formation have contributed to the decentralization of population and economic activities, weakening the central part's role as a vibrant urban core. The political economy of space, commercialism, and the land market have driven speculative investments and land price increases, further marginalizing low-income groups and pushing them to the periphery. The escape from the center and departure of the middle class have reduced the social diversity and vitality of the central area, creating a cycle of decline and disinvestment.
Two-way driving forces: These variables have two common characteristics: high influence and high dependence. Any action on these variables will cause a reaction and change in other variables. These variables can be divided into two groups: risk variables and target variables. Out of the total of 75 variables, 10 fall into this group. The two-faceted variables include: the economic value of land, the reluctance of the private sector to invest in the city center, the financial and functional-managerial weakness of the municipality, and decision-making by powerful institutions and individuals. These variables are both influenced by and influential upon other variables, making them critical leverage points for intervention. The economic value of land, for instance, is influenced by market dynamics, zoning regulations, and infrastructure investments, but it also shapes investment, development, and displacement patterns. The reluctance of the private sector to invest in the city center reflects perceptions of risk and low returns, which are in turn influenced by the physical deterioration of the built environment and the lack of effective incentives. The financial and functional-managerial weakness of the municipality constrains its ability to provide services, enforce regulations, and implement development projects, while also undermining its capacity to coordinate with other actors and to mobilize resources for urban renewal. Decision-making by powerful institutions and individuals, often driven by narrow interests rather than public welfare, further complicates the planning and governance of the central area, resulting in fragmented and inconsistent policies that fail to address the root causes of decline.
Influential variables: These variables have very high influence on the system and very low dependence. They consist of building structure, the formation of suburbs around Tehran, the migration of residents from the central part to the suburbs, the micro-structure and multiplicity of land parcels ownership, increase in the insecurity factor, increase in private and public vehicles, the reduction of renovation tendencies among people, physical obstacles and the level of construction feasibility, road networks and access to roads, and the evolution of roads and communication networks. These variables are largely independent of other variables but exert a significant impact on them, positioning them as important structural determinants of change. The physical structure of buildings determines the possibilities for renovation and change of use, while the multiplicity of ownership creates fragmentation and coordination problems that hinder comprehensive redevelopment. The formation of suburbs around Tehran has drawn population and investment away from the central area, while the rise in private vehicles has exacerbated traffic congestion and pollution. The reduction of renovation tendencies reflects a lack of confidence in the future of the central area, driven by insecurity, life’s low quality, and the absence of effective incentives. Physical obstacles, such as narrow streets and dilapidated buildings, further constrain construction feasibility. Road networks and access shape the connectivity and accessibility of the central area, influencing its attractiveness for investment and residence.
The results of the structural analysis indicate that the system of variables affecting central Tehran is characterized by instability and complexity. The high number of variables located near the diagonal axis of the scatterplot suggests that the system is in a state of flux, with many variables exerting mutual influence. This finding has imperative implications for urban planning, as it suggests that interventions targeting a single variable may have unintended consequences and that a more holistic and integrated approach is needed. The instability of the system also implies that small changes in key variables can trigger significant and potentially unpredictable transformations, making scenario planning an essential tool for exploring alternative futures.
Conclusion
The results exhibited that among the factors affecting developments in central Tehran, the concentration of opportunities and facilities and its centrality was the most significant factor influencing the development process, especially in its central part. Succeeding this factor, social segregation—in other words, the division of society into northern and southern parts—along with the transformation of needs and changes in people's tendencies, has also played an effective role. In addition, migration has occurred in all major Iranian cities in recent decades, and Tehran is not an exception. Sustained rural-to-urban migration to Tehran has triggered comprehensive economic, social, and physical change. The expansion of suburbanization and the emergence of marginalization—aimed at settling newly arrived immigrants who cannot be absorbed into the city's economic and social system—as well as the implementation of new town plans designed to absorb population overflow in large cities, have led to intra-city and extra-city relocations, and the central parts of cities have not remained untouched.
Issues related to the political economy of space, the integration of big cities (as capitals) into the world economy, the expansion of capitalist ideas, and the land market resulting from the penetration of ideas originating from the perspective of the political economy of space have also been influential. Consequently, the political economy of space has emerged as one of the driving and key effective forces in the development of central Tehran in recent decades. In general, it can be concluded that Tehran, as a national metropolis with transnational functions at the global level, has not remained isolated from the development process, consistent with the views expressed in the field of urban development globally. Based on this, from a planning and forward-looking perspective, if decisions are to be made to change and control the existing situation—in other words, urban foresight—attention to the aforementioned factors will be essential. The scenario-based approach adopted in this research has demonstrated that the future of central Tehran is not predetermined but will be shaped by the interplay of various driving forces and the decisions made by urban planners and policy-makers. By identifying the key driving forces and exploring alternative future scenarios, this research provides a valuable foundation for strategic urban planning and policy-making aimed at revitalizing the central part of Tehran and ensuring its sustainable development in the years to come.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
The second, third, and fourth authors participated in writing the theoretical foundations and designing the research methodology. The first author conducted the data analysis and supervised the overall research process.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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