An Analysis of the Future of Public Transport Systems in the Framework of Environmental Sustainability (Case Study: Tehran Metropolitan)

As previous studies have shown, despite the breadth and variety of criteria that explain sustainability, the factors affecting its realization are generally neglected and especially in the field of public transportation systems and future studies have theoretical gaps. Therefore, in the present study, by adopting a futuristic framework based on the retrospective approach, the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis was explained and modeled as a study sample for the year 1420. The data used included environmental scan variables, interviews with experts and questioning of citizens of Tehran. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was considered for data analysis. In the qualitative part, theme and landscape analysis were used, and in the quantitative part, structural analysis based on Mikmak software and Wizard scenario were used, as well as inferential statistical tests including analysis of variance, regression analysis and t-test. The results showed that the most important drivers shaping the future of Tehran's public transportation system, including the intensification of international sanctions against Iran and economic instability, social rejection of public transportation for private cars by residents, government investment priorities and acceptance rates, and Tehran is supported by environmental initiatives, new technologies and clean energy. On the other hand, propellants are highly interactive. So that with the slightest change in key propulsion, other variables of the model will also undergo serious changes and the future transportation system of Tehran will move away from the components of stability as much as possible.
As previous studies have shown, despite the breadth and variety of criteria that explain sustainability, the factors affecting its realization are generally neglected and especially in the field of public transportation systems and future studies have theoretical gaps. Therefore, in the present study, by adopting a futuristic framework based on the retrospective approach, the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis was explained and modeled as a study sample for the year 1420. The data used included environmental scan variables, interviews with experts and questioning of citizens of Tehran. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was considered for data analysis. In the qualitative part, theme and landscape analysis were used, and in the quantitative part, structural analysis based on Mikmak software and Wizard scenario were used, as well as inferential statistical tests including analysis of variance, regression analysis and t-test. The results showed that the most important drivers shaping the future of Tehran's public transportation system, including the intensification of international sanctions against Iran and economic instability, social rejection of public transportation for private cars by residents, government investment priorities and acceptance rates, and Tehran is supported by environmental initiatives, new technologies and clean energy. On the other hand, propellants are highly interactive. So that with the slightest change in key propulsion, other variables of the model will also undergo serious changes and the future transportation system of Tehran will move away from the components of stability as much as possible.As previous studies have shown, despite the breadth and variety of criteria that explain sustainability, the factors affecting its realization are generally neglected and especially in the field of public transportation systems and future studies have theoretical gaps. Therefore, in the present study, by adopting a futuristic framework based on the retrospective approach, the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis was explained and modeled as a study sample for the year 1420. The data used included environmental scan variables, interviews with experts and questioning of citizens of Tehran. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was considered for data analysis. In the qualitative part, theme and landscape analysis were used, and in the quantitative part, structural analysis based on Mikmak software and Wizard scenario were used, as well as inferential statistical tests including analysis of variance, regression analysis and t-test. The results showed that the most important drivers shaping the future of Tehran's public transportation system, including the intensification of international sanctions against Iran and economic instability, social rejection of public transportation for private cars by residents, government investment priorities and acceptance rates, and Tehran is supported by environmental initiatives, new technologies and clean energy. On the other hand, propellants are highly interactive. So that with the slightest change in key propulsion, other variables of the model will also undergo serious changes and the future transportation system of Tehran will move away from the components of stability as much as possible.As previous studies have shown, despite the breadth and variety of criteria that explain sustainability, the factors affecting its realization are generally neglected and especially in the field of public transportation systems and future studies have theoretical gaps. Therefore, in the present study, by adopting a futuristic framework based on the retrospective approach, the future of the public transportation system of Tehran metropolis was explained and modeled as a study sample for the year 1420. The data used included environmental scan variables, interviews with experts and questioning of citizens of Tehran. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was considered for data analysis. In the qualitative part, theme and landscape analysis were used, and in the quantitative part, structural analysis based on Mikmak software and Wizard scenario were used, as well as inferential statistical tests including analysis of variance, regression analysis and t-test. The results showed that the most important drivers shaping the future of Tehran's public transportation system, including the intensification of international sanctions against Iran and economic instability, social rejection of public transportation for private cars by residents, government investment priorities and acceptance rates, and Tehran is supported by environmental initiatives, new technologies and clean energy. On the other hand, propellants are highly interactive. So that with the slightest change in key propulsion, other variables of the model will also undergo serious changes and the future transportation system of Tehran will move away from the components of stability as much as possible.