Iranian Geography and Urban Planning Association Sustainable city 2476-6631 Articles in Press 2024 05 11 Modeling and analyzing the consequences of urban prosperity scenarios, a case study of Karaj city Modeling and analyzing the consequences of urban prosperity scenarios, a case study of Karaj city 195914 10.22034/jsc.2023.429787.1751 FA Sara Kamangar PhD student, Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran Abdolreza Rahmanifazli Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran سجادی Sajadi department of geography of shahid beheshti university 0000-1111-2222-1111 Taha Rabbani PhD in Geography and Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Abolfazl Meshkini Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban planning, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Journal Article 2023 12 10 Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown. Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown. Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown. Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown. Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown. Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown. Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown. Measuring the effects of scenarios and drivers on the key indicators of Karaj's urban development is a fundamental step in explaining the scenarios of Karaj's urban development. At this stage, it is determined how and to what extent each scenario and each driver will affect the indicators of urban prosperity. Also, by using this method, it will be possible to model different states of drivers and the consequences of these states on the indicators of urban prosperity. Based on the results of the Delphi method and the questionnaire, 16 indicators are known as key indicators of urban prosperity. which were categorized in the form of 6 dimensions: 1-education and educational justice, 2-gender equality, 3-health and life expectancy, 4-satisfaction with job and income, 5-access to energy and municipal services, and 6-access to technology. . After identifying the key dimensions and indicators, based on the fuzzy structural map, the impact of three critical uncertainties and four predetermined factors on the key indicators and dimensions was measured using the Mental Modeler software. In the table below, the dimensions of the fuzzy cognitive map method and the codes of each are shown.