A B S T R A C T
 
The intensification of everyday life and the reduction of social life in the current era have made it necessary to pay attention to the optimal foundation for the presence of different groups in urban spaces. Public spaces are a key factor for economic growth and development. They are of particular importance considering social and environmental aspects, and changes and control of their future conditions require comprehensive and complete evaluation and analysis. In this regard, using future research methods to provide flexible strategies with the help of scenario writing is very helpful. Aerospace Park located in the 21st district of Tehran, despite considering the national and macro scale and defining social activities, lacks a suitable sociable space. This article, with a practical purpose, uses the PESTEL model platform to explain the dimensions and factors of sociability and by using the future research method, it examines the compilation of the sociability scenarios of the aerospace park using the scenario wizard and identifies 24 key factors through the analysis of mutual effects. And their possible situations have been examined. The output scenarios are: 3 scenarios with high compatibility, 23 with weak compatibility and 17 with incompatible scenarios; Among these three scenarios, one scenario should include favorable and ideal conditions (the leading scenario) for the future socialization of the National Aerospace Park.
Extended abstract
Introduction
Humans, as the most critical factor in the dynamics of urban spaces, need a suitable platform for effective presence in public spaces. Social public spaces, as a place for social interactions for creating desirable urban environments, are one of the goals that has been given much attention in recent decades. The intensification of daily life routines and reduction of social life has made to it necessary to pay attention the preparation of an optimal platform in urban space designs for the presence and participation of a wide range of different social groups in the design of public spaces; on the other hand, public spaces are known as a productive factor for economic growth and development and are very valuable from social and environmental aspects, and their changes require comprehensive and complete evaluation and analysis. These spaces have long been considered the most attractive parts of cities, and as social life arenas, they create places for dependence and social exchange with others. The ability to attract people by public spaces has made these areas the most important part of urban planning. In today's era, one of the harms that threaten public spaces is the issue of privatization, which has distorted the social role of public spaces and has led to social deprivation of space for some groups and strata. Meanwhile, one of the main ways to test the success and popularity of a public arena is to check the number of residents and citizens visiting it at different hours of the day, contrasting with the phenomenon of privatization and exclusivity of public space.
 
Methodology
With its practical aim and a mixed methodology approach, this study has identified the public sociability indexes in District 21 according to the stated theories, sociability indicators of public spaces in the form of dimensions (PESTEL). Then, the degree of sociability in this field was measured by collecting data in two ways: library collection and questionnaire. Therefore, two groups of questionnaires were designed. The first questionnaire for Measuring the sociability of the public arena of District 21 is designed with the format of a Likert scale. The group has approved its transcript of experts, and to evaluate the reliability of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha coefficient is used through SPSS software with the result of 79%. To determine the sample size according to the population of District 21, which according to the latest census is 186,319 persons, 384 case sample size was determined considering a 95% confidence interval and the permissible error rate of 0.05 according to the Cochrane method. The selection of the samples was done in a purposeful and structured way, and people who knew about the area and its surroundings or had visited the complex before were selected for the sample population. In the second part of the expert questionnaire, determination of effective factors, structural analysis (interaction analysis) and uncertainty for data analysis and extraction of possible scenarios were designed by relying on the variables emerging from the literature of sociability of the space, content validity was done with the help of experts. Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software were used to analyze the questionnaire data. The questionnaire has been measured in the form of a matrix of mutual effects, and the weighting of the questionnaire has been measured in the form of a pairwise comparison. The experts approved the degree of correlation of the variables and the uncertainty states. According to Godet, the statistical population of the expert questionnaire should not be less than 25 people. Based on this, 25 urban experts familiar with the literature of future studies and scenario writing were selected.
 
Results and discussion
After determining the list of effective factors, the variables were entered into the mutual influence analysis matrix for identification and ranking. They were given to the experts by developing a standard mutual influence analysis questionnaire, and the average of the collected answers was prepared to be entered into the Mic Mac software. The output of this stage will be used as the input of the scenario wizard software. The results of Micmac software identify 24 key factors. The output scenarios of the Scenario wizard are 3 scenarios with high compatibility, 23 with low compatibility, and 17 with incompatible scenarios; among these 3 scenarios, one scenario contains favorable and ideal conditions (progressive scenario) for the future of socialization of National Aerospace Park.
 
Conclusion
The results of this feasibility study indicate that the sociability of the aerospace park is possible by considering the political and economic dimensions, and it is not possible without considering these two aspects. In other words, only considering design requirements and inter-organizational decisions will not support the sociability of this park, and the plan will fail. However, sociability will be possible by paying attention to the political and economic dimensions, including the interaction and political participation of organizational people and citizens, stable government policies, optimal investment security for the private sector, and continuous and annual budget allocation. From the social aspect, according to the possibility of space design by urban experts, effective solutions have been presented to provide sufficient information about the park to citizens of Tehran and, eventually, to the whole country for their presence and participation.
 
Funding
This article is derived from a research project approved by the Tehran Urban Research And Planning Center, and the credits of the said project were used to carry it out.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.